Best stocks to buy today



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Rishi Kashyap
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Best stocks to buy today


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In Sep 2020 one friend called me for Stock Investment query, here is the transcript of our conversation.


NK : Oh I heard you research and buy stocks ?
ME : Yes
NK : Which is the best stock to buy today ?
ME : Better invest in a Fixed Deposit for sometime !
NK : You invest in shares yourself and suggest fixed deposit to me ?
ME : Yes, that is because you asked for TODAY !
NK : Huh ?
ME : Investment opportunities do not come everyday you have to be patient for stock investment ! I do not know the best stock to buy today and so I advise you Fixed deposit for time being ! Anyways I believe you should learn Financial statement analysis to understand how to value stocks before investing.
NK : What about the inflation ? You lose money when you invest in fixed deposits because of inflation.
ME : Do you realize there are some assumptions with your views about Inflation !
NK : And what are these assumptions ?

Below is a detailed explanation why I still invest in fixed deposit and still beat inflation. Many readers find it confusing how this stock market course always suggest of Fixed deposit or Term deposit investment ! I rest my case below !
Best stocks to buy today
Inflation and its assumptions
Almost all Investment expert will tell you how Fixed Deposit or Term deposit do not beat inflation. In this chapter I will explain my views not only on inflation, but also talk about a real life case study of the "FL Family", who got there home WITHOUT ANY LOAN,  just buy doing investments in fixed deposit.

Below are the silent assumptions when Financial advisors advise against Fixed Deposit Investment (Risk free Investment)

  1. You are jobless and not adding to your savings
    In 2012 to 2014, I took a break of 2 years from my job to get more clarity about my life ! My 1st goal of how much money do I need to retire was achieved and that taught me not only about Inflation but also about planning to leave my Job ! It was the first time, I realized that inflation effects you only when you are jobless ! For 2 years I still did not touch my savings and survived on Jahajee.com earnings, but I was not able to save anything !

    Let me explain this with an example.
    At the time of writing this post, following are the numbers
    8% - Approximate Inflation in Apr 2022 (India)
    5% - Fixed deposit Interest rate in Apr 2022 (Risk free investment in India)
    3% - Approximate reduction in your investment per year !
    What you are missing is, that you still have a job and you can still invest each month to cover up not only this 3% but probably more !

  2. Measurement of inflation
    I ask you a very simple question, do you even know how is Inflation calculated ?
    Think about it ! We google or perhaps hear in some news channel stating it and accept it !
    Some explain it with an example of Coca-Cola bottle, some explain it with Car while some with something else !

    In very simple terms I only take regular expenses in accounting for my inflation not some fancy expensive object ! To me I am not going to change car every year or  my home every 5 years !  In fact if you try to calculate How much money do you need to retire, you will find your expenses actually reduces when you age !

  3. No better Investment opportunity in future
    In 2015 I sold all my mutual funds and shifted funds into stock market and Fixed deposits. However after 2015 most of my savings were kept in fixed deposit, compounding slowly.
    Boredom and impatience is your enemy in Stock Market !
    Outbreak of corona, crashed the stock market in 2020 ! Great stocks were sold extremely undervalued ! After 5 years of my savings in fixed deposit,  better investment opportunity came and I switched  to undervalued stocks of Good companies and Great companies !
    I have always preferred liquid investments which gives me far more flexibility to switch to a better investment opportunity, I have written about this in 2008 in Real estate vs Stocks

  4. Your salary will remain constant in future
    This is the most stupid assumption which I have heard people ignoring when discussing inflation ! With experience, in whichever field you work, your salary may grow with time. It depends on you, with every increment, you increase your savings or spending !

This sums up my view on Inflation and I still believe that you can get rich even by investing in FD, like the real life example of "FL family" who got their home just by investing in fixed deposit and being patient !

CASE STUDY - The FL Family
One of my close relative GM got married to VB in 2008.
GM was a commerce graduate while VB had Masters in computer Application degree. In India generally MCA graduates salary starts at a lower level then a B-Tech Engineer's salary.
Let's call this family FL family aka Financially Literate family !

FL family was smart enough to realize that if they do not take control of their life they will always be struggling financially. So a mission with a very specific goal of why are they investing was set. Goal was to have their own home by 2018, within 10 years of marriage, without any LOAN !

Following is a simple breakup of how the FL Family did it !
YearMonthly SalaryMonthly SavingsFD Int rateAmountPrevious SavingTotal
2008-201028k15k (54%)9%3.94 Lakhs
Savings
4 Lakhs7.94 Lakhs
2010NANANA-3.5 Lakhs
Booking Amount
7.94 Lakhs4.44 Lakhs
2010NANANA-1 Lakhs
Medical expense
4.44 Lakhs3.44 Lakhs
2010-201145k28k (62%)8%3.5 Lakhs
Savings
3.44 Lakhs & 28k Interest7.15 Lakhs
2011NANANA-3.5 Lakhs
1st Instalment
7.15 Lakhs3.65 Lakhs
2011-201255k38k (69%)8%4.75 Lakhs
Savings
3.65 Lakhs & 29k Interest8.69 Lakhs
2012NANANA-3.5 Lakhs
2nd Instalment
8.69 Lakhs5.19 Lakhs
2012-201355k38k (69%)8%4.75 Lakhs
Savings
5.19 Lakhs & 41k Interest10.35 Lakhs
2013NANANA-5 Lakhs
Final Installment
10.35 Lakhs5.35 Lakhs

To achieve this goal, 50% of their salary was to be invested regularly in a fixed deposit with return rate of 9% (2008)
FD were done in the name of Mrs GM to save Tax !
They decided to stay in rented 1 BHK apartment.
Whenever landlord increased rent, they changed to better 1 BHK apartment at almost same monthly rent.
They kept less baggage and moved closer to office !
Mr VB saved on traveling expense to office too !
In 2010 they were blessed with a child VB junior.
In 2014 Mrs GM cleared her Chartered Accountant examination and got a job.
Apartment booked was confirmed to have construction linked payment plan !
As salary increased, saving increased, from 50% to 60% to 70% !
Expenses remained almost constant.

They decided NOT to buy a car.
"Other people" view never mattered to them !

When I told one of my IT friend, in same profession and region, how they managed to buy the home without a loan, he said, and I will quote
It is an achievement for an IT Guy with only 1 member earning to buy a flat without taking loan these days.
Was it easy for them ? Hell NO !
Mr VB had 2 major accidents and was jobless twice for few months and yet they made it in 2017 (4 years delayed by the builder) !
In 2017 they got their 2 BHK "SWEET HOME" !

These days this may be called "LIVING BELOW MEANS", however real Investors call it "DELAYED GRATIFICATION".

As I write, they have been compounding money since 2014 not only in FD but an equal amount in Stocks these days. They learnt valuing stocks for their next goal of VB junior's higher studies in 2027.
Of all the people I have met in my life, FL family is the only one who say that they have "ENOUGH".

I never say to invest in fixed deposit forever, all I am saying is, if you don't get a better opportunity invest in fixed deposit !
My definition of "better investment opportunity" stands as 2X the risk free investment interest rate for example
FD interest rate : 5%
Better opportunity : 10% CAGR minimum
If any investment return rate is less than this, I will simply ignore it !
Also note, I still have a very defined expectation of my returns which I keep track using the CAGR Calculator.

Trust you are in no hurry now, for the best stocks to buy today !

FINANCIAL PLANNING Stock Market Course VALUE INVESTING GROWTH INVESTING Stock Investment

Rishi Kashyap | EDITED | EDIT | REPLY


tags  FINANCIAL PLANNING GROWTH INVESTING STOCK INVESTMENT STOCK MARKET COURSE VALUE INVESTING

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